The start of 2026 has brought the most significant geopolitical shift in a generation. Following Operation Absolute Resolve on January 3, 2026, and the subsequent capture of Nicolás Maduro, the global energy landscape is being rewritten. For investors and forex traders at PipInfuse, this isn’t just news, it is a massive structural opportunity in the energy sector and forex markets.
With the United States signaling a Donroe Doctrine (the 2026 Monroe Doctrine update) and a focus on stabilizing South American energy infrastructure, the rebuild of Venezuela is the new focus for smart capital. While US majors like Chevron are often in the headlines, European oil giants are uniquely positioned to benefit from this sudden regime change.
The Impact of Operation Absolute Resolve on Global Crude Oil
The capture of Maduro has instantly triggered a risk premium shift in the markets. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves (over 300 billion barrels), yet its infrastructure has been crumbling for years. As the US military and transitional government secure oil fields, the question isn’t if the oil will flow, but who will be granted the licenses to extract and refine it.
For the global economy, this means a long term potential for lower crude prices, but in the short term, it creates extreme volatility. At PipInfuse, we are seeing massive swings in commodity linked currencies. Understanding which corporations are leading the infrastructure rebuild is key to predicting market movements.
3 European Oil Majors Positioned for the Venezuela Rebuild
While American companies face heavy political scrutiny, European oil majors often operate with a different diplomatic flexibility. These three companies have the history, the technology, and the existing assets to lead the Venezuelan energy recovery.
1. Repsol (Spain): The Debt Recovery Giant
Spain’s Repsol has perhaps the most to gain. For years, Repsol maintained a presence in Venezuela primarily to recover old debts through oil for debt swaps. With the Maduro regime gone, those debts may finally be restructured into high value equity or long term drilling rights.
Repsol is a leader in the Cardon IV project and has the local expertise to ramp up production faster than almost any other European peer. Investors are watching Repsol closely as it pivots from a creditor status to a primary producer in a post conflict Venezuela.
2. Eni (Italy): Strategic Infrastructure Partner
The Italian energy giant Eni has stayed active in the Orinoco Belt even during the height of international sanctions. Their focus has been on gas and heavy crude processing. Since the Energy Rebuild will require massive technical upgrades to refineries, Eni’s specialized engineering services make them an indispensable partner for the new transitional government.
Eni’s ability to navigate complex political environments in Africa and the Middle East has prepared them perfectly for the New Venezuela landscape.
3. TotalEnergies (France): The Calculated Re entry
While TotalEnergies reduced its exposure to Venezuelan assets in 2021, the company is known for its aggressive re entry into high yield zones once stability returns. With their massive cash reserves and focus on integrated energy, they are likely to bid on new offshore projects that were previously off limits due to Maduro’s legal hurdles.
TotalEnergies represents the growth play in this scenario, as they have the capital to fund the massive infrastructure projects required to bring Venezuelan production back to 3 million barrels per day.
How Investors and Forex Traders Should Play This Shift
At PipInfuse, our core mission is Forex Education and helping you manage Risk Management during Black Swan events like this. Geopolitical conflicts of this scale require a disciplined approach.
- Currency Correlation: Watch the USD/CAD and EUR/USD. As Venezuelan oil begins to compete with Canadian heavy crude, the CAD may see increased pressure.
- Position Sizing: With the OperationAbsoluteResolve causing 5% swings in crude oil daily, never over leverage. Whether you are trading a large portfolio or a Small Forex Account with $100, your priority is capital preservation.
- Due Diligence: Just as you must ask 5 Critical Questions before choosing a portfolio manager, you must do your own research on the Energy Rebuild before committing capital to oil equities.
A New Era for Energy Markets
The capture of Maduro marks the end of an era and the beginning of the largest energy reconstruction project of the 21st century. The Energy Rebuild of Venezuela will provide a multi year tailwind for European majors like Repsol and Eni. However, the path will be volatile.
Stay tuned to PipInfuse for real time analysis of how these geopolitical shifts impact your trading strategy and portfolio growth.
About the Author
Bhagesh Nair is the founder and lead strategist at PipInfuse. With over a decade of experience in forex markets and commodity trading, Bhagesh specializes in simplifying complex geopolitical events into actionable trading insights. His mission is to provide world class Forex Education to both beginners and institutional investors, focusing on the intersection of global politics and financial discipline.
